I recently read on a blog that 2009 may turn out to be the worst year publishing has ever seen.  This due, in part, to the economy (the economy is the scapegoat for everything).  The big houses are being uber selective.  Agents who work with the big houses are being even MORE selective.  The want new, they want fresh.  They want something that is going to make Twilight-like sales right away.  I even have heard people go as far as to say if you are an unknown writer, don’t even bother.  The industry is only looking for authors who are tried and true, i.e. King, Sparks, Grisham, Brown, Roberts, Rowling, etc.  They want a guarantee.

And much like the economy, there is no guarantee that new authors are going to produce.  For example–and I don’t remember where I read this, but it was a blog–it’s easy to publish.  It’s hard to get thousands upon thousands of people to buy your book.  Especially, when people are tight with their money.

Some people are calling for a change in the industry.  Get rid of the returns policy.  Only authors with a track record should have actual hardcopy books printed; make everyone else be digital.  Are they saying that new authors aren’t worth the paper they’re (not) printed on?  I also saw one commenter on a blog say that there is no room for new voices.

So, where does that leave us?  The New York Times just wrote a really interesting article about self publishing being the wave of the future, which you can read here.  I think the stigma of so called “vanity” publishing is fading away, especially when most authors can’t even get a rejection from New York agents, just an auto response that says “if you don’t hear from us in 4 weeks, we’re not interested.”

Here’s another interesting idea: Authonomy.  You can post your novel on the site and have people all over the world view it.  They can give you comments; tell you what they like and don’t like.  And the kicker?  It’s run by HarperCollins.  Three authors who had posted on the site recently signed deals with HC.  Apparently this place is generating a lot of interest.

And just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for new authors, check out this blog on how the New York Times picks the books to review.  Kinda makes you feel like a salmon swimming upstream, huh?

So there it is.  What’s going to happen with the publishing industry?  What’s going to happen with the economy?  Who knows.  I think my policy is going to stick with believe in your work.  Be persistant.  Do your research.  Don’t let the big baddies get you down.